Equity mutual fund (MF) schemes have raked in Rs 46,200 crore in net lump-sum inflows in the past six months (ended February 2024), almost thrice the inflow in the previous six-month period.
Micro-cap stocks are in the line of fire as market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is tightening its noose around investment in small-cap stocks. Given this, analysts suggest investors exit the segment, at least, for the time being. Independent market analyst, Ambareesh Baliga, for instance, said that regulators have gotten worried on the valuation front, though belated, which could prove to be the last straw on the camel's back.
Economic growth, which we are taking for granted, slows for a completely different set of local or global factors and the Modi premium vanishes, observes Debashis Basu.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
Capital markets are becoming more prominent in India's growth story, with an expanding share in capital formation and investment landscape on the back of technology, innovation and digitisation, according to the Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Further, Indian markets are resilient to global geo-political and economic shocks, it added. "Despite heightened geo-political risks, rising interest rates and volatile commodity prices, Indian capital markets have been one of the best performing among emerging markets in FY24," the Economic Survey said.
'Sell in May, go away' is a popular market adage. But 'Don't sell any new shares in May' is the best kept secret of Dalal Street that's set to break. Sample this: the last four General Election election cycles starting 2004 have not seen a single initial public offering (IPO) launch during the month of May.
Nifty could fall to 9,500 levels; not a good time to bottom fish, say experts
The BSE Mid-Cap index was currently up 0.83%. The BSE Small-Cap index was currently up 0.8%.
L&T was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying over 4 per cent, followed by Dr Reddy's, Sun Pharma, NTPC, IndusInd Bank, PowerGrid, ONGC and M&M. NSE Nifty jumped 119.20 points to 14,942.35.
A buoyant equity market, coupled with an improved performance of mutual funds (MFs) on the returns chart, has heightened retail investors' appetite for equities. In the past few months, equity MF schemes have seen a surge in fresh investments through both lump sum (one-time investments) and systematic investment plan (SIP) routes. During the August-September 2023 period, equity MF schemes recorded net lump sum investments of Rs 35,270 crore, compared to just Rs 5,550 crore in the previous three months, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
'If the NDA comes to power with 320-330 plus seats, then we could see some correction. We could possibly see a level of 19,500 to 20,000.' 'If the NDA comes to power with a majority of 400-plus, we could see the markets going to about 23,500-24,000 levels.' 'And from there we could see some correction because markets are expensive at this point of time and a correction is overdue.'
Even as net flows into smallcap funds in March turned negative, for the first time in 30 months, they remained a big draw for new investors. The smallcap fund category saw a net of 360,000 investment accounts, or folios, getting added last month, the second-most among all active equity categories. Smallcap funds' continued traction could be driven by their strong performance across timeframes, say experts.
The S&P BSE 500 index, which accounts for 94% market capitalisation of BSE listed companies, has gained 45% from its March 24 low. However, out of the BSE 500 index stocks, 225 have underperformed the index by gaining less than the broader index during this period.
Consumption-related stocks, such as hotels, and quick service restaurants (QSRs), have been hitting the ball out of the park ahead. On the other hand, the Miss World Pageant scheduled for later this year in New Delhi, too, could provide some tailwind to these stocks, especially hotels and aviation. However, analysts suggest investors put their best foot forward and buy these counters only on a decline given the recent rally and economic headwinds.
According to experts, the Nifty has continued to form lower top-lower bottom formations, a trend seen in the last five weeks, and witnessed sharp selling towards 9,700 zones.
Among the Sensex firms, Hindustan Unilever, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan and UltraTech Cement were the major laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro and Maruti were among the gainers.
The bias for the BSE benchmark index, technical charts suggest, is likely to remain bullish as long as the index holds above 75,600 levels for the rest of the year.
Major laggards among Sensex constituents included Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel and ITC. Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, NTPC and Titan emerged as winners.
Equity fundraising through qualified institutional placements (QIPs) has gained traction, thanks to supportive equity markets and the need for fresh fundraising to meet capital expenditure (capex) requirements.
Only 10 per cent of stocks account for 93 per cent of investments.
In the broader market, BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices mirrored the gains in headline indices and rose 1% and 0.9% respectively.
Among major Sensex gainers, ITC rose the most by 2.32 per cent, followed by TCS, M&M, SBI and Bharti Airtel.
It is too early to judge if the fall in Nifty from an all-time high of 11,170 to February 12 closing of 10,539 is a big trend reversal or merely a short-term correction, says Devangshu Datta.
Prominent exits by promoters included a Rs 15,300 crore share sale in Indus Tower by Vodafone Plc, a Rs 9,300 crore share sale by the Tata group in Tata Consultancy Services.
While the corporate sector has benefited from massive capital expenditure, leading to sky-rocketing stock prices, investors would do well to keep an eye on the macroeconomic picture and government finances, not just corporate profits, for signs of trouble, alerts Debashis Basu.
Omkeshwar Singh, head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
On the Sensex chart, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank and Bajaj Finance emerged as the major laggards, dropping over 6 per cent.
Stocks of new-age companies have seen a mixed performance thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). While those of One97 Communications (parent company of Paytm), PB Fintech and Zomato have surged up to 63 per cent year-to-date (YTD), FSN e-commerce, the parent company of Nykaa, however, has dropped 14 per cent YTD. By comparison, Nifty50 and Nifty 500 indices have advanced 7 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, during the period, ACE Equity data show.
The Union government's revenue from securities transaction tax (STT) is on track to exceed its Budget projection for the current fiscal year, with the mop-up already surpassing 50 per cent of the annual estimate. Provisional figures reveal that the Centre has collected approximately Rs 14,000 crore in the first half of this fiscal year up to September, according to a government official. This amount exceeds half of the full-year target of Rs 27,625 crore set for FY24.
A logjam on the GST front could turn things upside down and turmoil in Gujarat might also have an adverse impact
As temperatures soar across the country, amid searing heat wave, analysts see power demand hitting fresh record highs this year. The time, therefore, may be opportune to add related stocks on dips as higher demand boosts earnings visibility, they said. On April 18, India's electricity demand touched a new high of 216 gigawatts.
Dr Reddy's was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 3 per cent, followed by PowerGrid, TCS, HCL Tech, Infosys and Reliance Industries. On the other hand, L&T, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Bharti Airtel were among the laggards.
The first quarter results (Q1FY25) of Indian IT services hint towards better fiscal growth than the preceding year, but as the management commentary said, "there is still some time for the industry to be firing on all cylinders." Among the majors-Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCLTech, and Wipro-it is the Bengaluru-based Infosys that has performed better, which was also evident in its full-year revenue guidance.
Those who cannot bear significant downturns (as much as 40 per cent) or have a short horizon should exit entirely.
Wipro was the biggest loser among Sensex firms, sliding 2.32 per cent, followed by HDFC Bank, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, ITC, ICICI Bank and Tata Motors. IndusInd Bank, Maruti, State Bank of India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints and Bajaj Finserv were among the gainers.
Retail investors now own a bigger slice of smallcap companies than at the start of 2023-24 (FY24), underscoring their growing conviction about investing in this red-hot space. Data from Capitaline shows mutual funds' (MFs') average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 rising to 9.26 per cent from 8.67 per cent during the first six months of FY24, with the number of companies with over 20 per cent MF holdings increasing from 24 to 28. In comparison, MF holdings in Nifty50 companies have gone up only marginally, from 9.67 per cent to 9.75 per cent.
Axis Bank, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, and Bajaj Finance were among the other major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra were among the gainers.
On the Sensex chart, Axis Bank, Titan, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank, Dr Reddy's, HDFC and Asian Paint were major losers.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said the securities transaction tax (STT) will be increased on futures and options (F&O) trade from October 1 to discourage retail investors from investing in the risky instrument.
Among the Sensex firms, UltraTech Cement, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Motors, Maruti, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, NTPC, Tata Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the major laggards.
