Nifty could fall to 9,500 levels; not a good time to bottom fish, say experts
The BSE Mid-Cap index was currently up 0.83%. The BSE Small-Cap index was currently up 0.8%.
The S&P BSE 500 index, which accounts for 94% market capitalisation of BSE listed companies, has gained 45% from its March 24 low. However, out of the BSE 500 index stocks, 225 have underperformed the index by gaining less than the broader index during this period.
According to experts, the Nifty has continued to form lower top-lower bottom formations, a trend seen in the last five weeks, and witnessed sharp selling towards 9,700 zones.
While the corporate sector has benefited from massive capital expenditure, leading to sky-rocketing stock prices, investors would do well to keep an eye on the macroeconomic picture and government finances, not just corporate profits, for signs of trouble, alerts Debashis Basu.
The first quarter results (Q1FY25) of Indian IT services hint towards better fiscal growth than the preceding year, but as the management commentary said, "there is still some time for the industry to be firing on all cylinders." Among the majors-Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCLTech, and Wipro-it is the Bengaluru-based Infosys that has performed better, which was also evident in its full-year revenue guidance.
Stocks of new-age companies have seen a mixed performance thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). While those of One97 Communications (parent company of Paytm), PB Fintech and Zomato have surged up to 63 per cent year-to-date (YTD), FSN e-commerce, the parent company of Nykaa, however, has dropped 14 per cent YTD. By comparison, Nifty50 and Nifty 500 indices have advanced 7 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, during the period, ACE Equity data show.
Only 10 per cent of stocks account for 93 per cent of investments.
The Union government's revenue from securities transaction tax (STT) is on track to exceed its Budget projection for the current fiscal year, with the mop-up already surpassing 50 per cent of the annual estimate. Provisional figures reveal that the Centre has collected approximately Rs 14,000 crore in the first half of this fiscal year up to September, according to a government official. This amount exceeds half of the full-year target of Rs 27,625 crore set for FY24.
Those who cannot bear significant downturns (as much as 40 per cent) or have a short horizon should exit entirely.
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Among major Sensex gainers, ITC rose the most by 2.32 per cent, followed by TCS, M&M, SBI and Bharti Airtel.
In the broader market, BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices mirrored the gains in headline indices and rose 1% and 0.9% respectively.
On the Sensex chart, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank and Bajaj Finance emerged as the major laggards, dropping over 6 per cent.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said the securities transaction tax (STT) will be increased on futures and options (F&O) trade from October 1 to discourage retail investors from investing in the risky instrument.
As temperatures soar across the country, amid searing heat wave, analysts see power demand hitting fresh record highs this year. The time, therefore, may be opportune to add related stocks on dips as higher demand boosts earnings visibility, they said. On April 18, India's electricity demand touched a new high of 216 gigawatts.
It is too early to judge if the fall in Nifty from an all-time high of 11,170 to February 12 closing of 10,539 is a big trend reversal or merely a short-term correction, says Devangshu Datta.
Retail investors now own a bigger slice of smallcap companies than at the start of 2023-24 (FY24), underscoring their growing conviction about investing in this red-hot space. Data from Capitaline shows mutual funds' (MFs') average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 rising to 9.26 per cent from 8.67 per cent during the first six months of FY24, with the number of companies with over 20 per cent MF holdings increasing from 24 to 28. In comparison, MF holdings in Nifty50 companies have gone up only marginally, from 9.67 per cent to 9.75 per cent.
Wipro was the biggest loser among Sensex firms, sliding 2.32 per cent, followed by HDFC Bank, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, ITC, ICICI Bank and Tata Motors. IndusInd Bank, Maruti, State Bank of India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints and Bajaj Finserv were among the gainers.
Axis Bank, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, and Bajaj Finance were among the other major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra were among the gainers.
Dr Reddy's was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 3 per cent, followed by PowerGrid, TCS, HCL Tech, Infosys and Reliance Industries. On the other hand, L&T, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Bharti Airtel were among the laggards.
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Among the Sensex firms, UltraTech Cement, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Motors, Maruti, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, NTPC, Tata Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the major laggards.
'In the next one-and-a-half, two months you'll get decent amount of opportunities in the mid-cap and small-cap sector at lower levels.'
On the Sensex chart, Axis Bank, Titan, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank, Dr Reddy's, HDFC and Asian Paint were major losers.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, PowerGrid and Bajaj Finserve gained up to 2.01 per cent. On the other hand, bellwether stocks such as ITC, Kotak Mahindra, Tech Mahindra and Reliance were the laggards. ITC shares closed the session with a loss of 3.87 per cent lower and Reliance ended 1.92 per cent lower.
rediffGURU Nikunj Saraf suggests considering small-cap, mid-cap, and multi-cap mutual funds.
'In the short term you keep your return expectations very, very low; in the medium term be prepared to invest and in the long term growth will come and your returns from stocks will be high.'
rediffGURU Ulhas Joshi recommends five factors you need to look at to evaluate the performance of two schemes.
The Nifty had added more than a hundred points in the past two trading sessions, and infact, comprehensively crossed the 5500 mark on Thursday. The market breadth was negative. Of the 3,071 shares traded on the BSE, 1,602 stocks have declined while 1,353 have advanced.
rediffGURU Ulhas Joshi answers your mutual fund queries.
Foreign portfolio investors have been net positive since the Union Budget
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
The focus is on corporate results at one level but global news will also have an impact
Boom, bust or a bit of both: as the jury bides time before ruling on the US 'recession', the economy's vital signs at a perplexing time of high-interest rates, still-punishing inflation, and surprisingly strong economic gains are a study of a growing debate over whether the world's largest economy is barrelling into a new downturn. With the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) inflation fighters attempting the risky pursuit of 'pillow-soft landings' and its economy sending out mixed signals, if there is indeed a recession, it could spell trouble for domestic equities and corporate earnings growth.
If a 5% to 10% fall in the equity market gives you sleepless nights, you are not cut out for a 75% to 80% allocation to equities and must reduce it.
The dealers operating in the space have jumped nearly three times over the past two years.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Nestle, Axis Bank, Wipro and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. JSW Steel, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors and Bajaj Finance were the major laggards.
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